Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Andar Nubowo, RSIS
Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election is a face-off between two old rivals: incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and his challenger Prabowo Subianto. While some electoral issues are identical to the 2014 election when they first clashed, such as the economy and nationalism, others are new. The so-called ‘conservative turn’ heralded by a massive peaceful Islamist protest in December 2016, dubbed the 212 movement, could be a game changer. Read more…
Authors: Dushni Weerakoon, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka and Sisira Jayasuriya, Monash University
Global media and numerous ‘experts’ routinely assert that Sri Lanka was forced to cede a strategically important port to China after being lured into a debt trap by easy Chinese loans. This story has now become part of the wider narrative of how China is using the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to achieve its diplomatic and strategic aims through debt diplomacy. But it is a story based more on fiction than fact. Read more…
Author: Logan Wright, Rhodium Group
One of the most important factors driving the rapid growth of China’s economy over the previous decade has been the unprecedented expansion of the country’s financial system. Since the global financial crisis, bank assets have quadrupled to an astonishing US$39.5 trillion in 2018, roughly three times the size of China’s economy. This amounts to the largest single-country credit expansion in the last century. Read more…
Author: Lee Seong-hyon, Sejong Institute
Since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in March 2018, the mainstream view in China’s strategic community has evolved. China has gradually come to embrace the notion that Kim’s denuclearisation diplomacy is a genuine strategic shift, not a tactical manoeuvre. Read more…
Author: Charles K Armstrong, Columbia University
At the end of 2017, the Korean Peninsula appeared to be on the brink of a major confrontation — possibly even nuclear war — between the United States and North Korea. Read more…
Author: Paul Evans, University of British Columbia
The 1 December 2018 arrest of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on a US extradition request has triggered the biggest shock wave in Canada–China relations since the events at Tiananmen Square in June 1989. Read more…
Author: Mack Williams, Sydney
Media speculation continues about the outcome of the upcoming second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, swirling from Trump’s encouraging predictions to the deep scepticism of many long-term observers. After playing a key role in getting the United States and North Korea to the negotiating table, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s personal involvement with both leaders continues to be crucial.
Authors: Shiro Armstrong and Peter Drysdale, ANU
Delays in clearing Australian coal imports through Dalian and northern Chinese ports over the past week set off alarms in Australia about risks to the massive thermal coal and resource trade relationship with China. The Australian dollar took a hit. Trade Minister Simon Birmingham and Australian officials tried to quell precipitate speculation that connected these events to Australian actions that have recently touched on Chinese economic and political interests.
Author: Editorial Board, ANU
The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is at the centre of regional affairs, acting as a buffer in a theatre of major power interactions in Asia and as a platform for their cooperation. It has played that role almost by default for close to 30 years since APEC was established. Its role was entrenched during the Asian financial crisis as Japan, China and South Korea coalesced around ASEAN, realising they couldn’t depend too heavily on Washington and had to work together across a range of economic and political issues.
Author: Ponciano Intal Jr, ERIA
ASEAN is now facing circumstances that are fundamentally different from anything it has dealt with before. They require a much more proactive approach on international and regional integration strategies. ASEAN is unlikely to maintain its centrality unless its leaders are prepared to take bold steps, beyond ‘business as usual’.
Authors: Garima Sahdev, New Delhi and Geethanjali Nataraj, Indian Institute of Public Administration
Despite being founded with the lofty ideal of promoting regional development and integration over 30 years ago, regional unity continues to elude the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Momentous opportunities for cooperation are repeatedly squandered. Read more…
Author: Nicole Jenne, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
As Indonesia enters the first year of its term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, the Jokowi government is highlighting peacekeeping as a major plank of its role in promoting global peace and security. But a focus on peacekeeping alone is unlikely to make for a successful two-year term on the Security Council. Read more…
Author: Jina Kim, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses
The US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system is a hot diplomatic issue between South Korea and China. South Korea decided to deploy THAAD in July 2016 amid growing threats from North Korea, but Beijing is worried that the system’s radar can penetrate its territory and undermines the regional security balance. With a second meeting of the US and North Korean leaders fast approaching, the issue may soon resurface. Read more…
Authors: Johannes Plagemann, GIGA and Sandra Destradi, Helmut Schmidt University and GIGA
From US President Donald Trump to the pan-populist ruling coalition in Italy, populist politicians are making an imprint on foreign policy around the world. But rather than ushering in something altogether new, populist approaches to foreign policy in the Global South reflect larger trends already underway in the transition to a multipolar and post-Western era. Indian foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a case in point. Read more…
Author: Tristan Kenderdine, Future Risk
Over the past several years, there has been a monumental shift in China’s energy policy towards nuclear power. And Beijing’s nuclear ambitions aren’t limited to its own borders. Its ‘Made in China 2025’ blueprint envisages vastly expanding China’s role in nuclear power generation in developing economies worldwide. Read more…
