Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific
Author: Ran Li, Peking University
China’s leverage ratio — the ratio of debt to assets or equity — is rising at an alarming pace and approaching a historical high. High leverage ratios have in the past caused concern that financial asset bubbles in China might soon burst. Read more…
Author: Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Thailand Development Research Institute
I have always been a strong supporter of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM), which is ASEAN+3’s safety net mechanism for crisis prevention and resolution. While there have been some significant achievements, the safety net mechanism itself has progressed very slowly and is not yet in a position to make a difference compared to the situation during the Asian Financial Crisis. Read more…
Author: Hugh White, ANU
Each year, the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore provides a platform for Washington to affirm the United States’ strategic commitment to Asia, strengthen US regional leadership and push back against China’s encroachments. And it gives US friends and allies in Asia an opportunity to line up in support. Read more…
Author: Tyrell Haberkorn, ANU
On 6 April 2017, Thailand’s 20th constitution came into force, replacing a temporary constitution that was handed down in the wake of the country’s most recent coup almost three years earlier. The promulgation of the new constitution gleamed with the possibility of a transition away from military authoritarianism and a new pact between the rulers and the ruled. Read more…
Author: Jiao Wang, University of Melbourne
On 24 May 2017, Moody’s Investors Service cut China’s long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings from Aa3 to A1 and changed the outlook of the Chinese economy from negative to stable. Moody’s is not a teacher handing out report cards, but the feeling from losing ‘straight As’ is the same — unpleasant. Read more…
Author: Editors, East Asia Forum
In July 2012, two years after her release from house arrest, Aung San Suu Kyi delivered her maiden speech to Myanmar’s parliament. Then opposition leader, she used the opportunity to voice concern about ethnic disunity and continuing civil war — a concern that has consumed the people of Myanmar since the unifying Panglong Agreement reached under her father, Aung San, fell to pieces in the late-1940s. Read more…
Author: David I. Steinberg, Georgetown University
Even before the elections of November 2015, there was a general foreign perception that Myanmar was on the ‘road to democracy’. But the military only promised a ‘discipline-flourishing democracy’ — and whenever that term is modified, it is diminished. Myanmar is definitely on a transitional path from which there is no returning to authoritarian rule without widespread public disturbance. Read more…
Author: Yiping Huang, Peking University
Moody’s recent downgrading of China’s sovereign debt rating triggered waves of reaction in both financial markets and policy circles. But like many other rating adjustments it looks more like a lagging, rather than a leading, indicator of an existing risk factor. China does have a major debt problem. But given its recent policy action, China’s sovereign debt risks will in fact likely fall going forward, although debt risks in other areas might rise. Read more…
Author: Nyi Nyi Kyaw, NUS
On 23 May 2017 Myanmar’s State Sangha Maha Nayaka (MHN) Committee, a government-appointed group of monks responsible for regulating the country’s Buddhist clergy, announced a four-point order effectively banning the Organisation for the Protection of Race and Religion, known as Ma Ba Tha. Read more…
Author: Henry Sherrell, ANU
The India–Australia Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement — or Free Trade Agreement in Australian parlance — took a tremendous blow on 19 April 2017. Read more…
Author: Francesca Chiu, University of Hong Kong
In 2016 in a village in Gansu, one of China’s poorest provinces, Yang Gailan killed herself and her four children after she had been denied official anti-poverty assistance for a second year. Read more…
Author: Frédéric Grare, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In an interview on 3 May 2017, former president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai strongly attacked US policy in Afghanistan and, once again, asked India to do more in his country. Read more…
Author: Moon Chung-in, Seoul
Nearly two weeks into South Korea’s new administration, the dark clouds of impeachment have cleared. President Moon Jae-in‘s inauguration speech was full of common sense, and genuinely communicated with the people. Read more…
Author: James Batley, ANU
On 30 June this year, the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) will come to an end after 14 years. RAMSI was deployed in mid-2003 at the invitation of a desperate Solomon Islands government following several years of conflict between armed militant groups, a collapse in law and order and in the state’s capacity to deliver services Read more…
Author: Su Mon Thazin Aung, Institute for Strategy and Policy
Myanmar’s second 21st Century Panglong Conference, which will begin on the 24 May, comes with mixed expectations. Many are cautiously welcoming the event as a step towards amending the 2008 military-drafted constitution. But there are also those concerned that the conference will only serve as a showcase event for the Myanmar government. Read more…
